Is The "New Manager Bounce" Real? | Nudge Newsletter


Do new managers give teams a "bounce"?

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In sports, it's common to hear about the "new manager bounce".

It's an immediate improvement in performance following a change of manager.

Like most sporting clichés, it's made its way into the working world.

An old boss of mine justified a managerial replacement. by citing the need to quickly hit that quarter's KPIs.

But is the new manager bounce real?

One detailed study¹ on Polish football managers found that players initially ran faster and farther after a manager was fired.

But this was just a return to normal effort levels prior to the underperforming old manager.

Long-term results didn't improve.

A Norwegian study² compared NFL* teams that fired managers vs. those that hadn't.

Despite having similar performance declines, teams that kept their coaches actually recovered faster.

Those who fired the manager improved far more slowly.

Turns out, replacing a manager rarely provides lasting performance gains — Phill

P.S. This insight is taken from Colin Fisher's great book The Collective Edge.

¹Radzimiński, Ł., Chmura, P., Chmura, J., Kowalczuk, E., & Konefał, M. (2022). The effect of mid-season coach turnover on running match performance and match outcome in professional soccer players. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1–10.

²Arnulf, J. K., Mathisen, J. E., & Hærem, T. (2012). Heroic leadership illusions in football teams: Rationality, decision making and noise-signal ratio in the firing of football managers. Leadership, 8(2), 169–185.

*Norwegian Football League, not the American National Football League.

As a behavioural science practitioner, I believe in the peak-end rule.

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