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Balance 25 cents and win $100 | Nudge Newsletter

Published about 2 months ago • 1 min read

Variable Rewards

​Read online​

This video of a smart gas station owner went viral a couple of months back.

The video shows dozens of customers failing to balance 25 cents on a lemon.

A chance to win $100 is a carrot large enough to make customers bet.

It shows something that many marketers have known for decades.

We love a gamble.

People prefer a gamble

In 2025, researchers Gaertig and Simmons offered either a gamble or a certain reward to hundreds of participants¹.

Some were offered a 10% chance to win a free hotel stay.

Others were offered a 10% guaranteed discount per night.

Turns out, participants were 92.6% more likely to choose the gamble than the certain reward.

We're drawn towards variable rewards. Rather than offering a small discount, give your customers the chance to gamble instead.

There are 550+ tips like this in the Nudge Vaults.

I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10.

For a chance to win 20%, respond to this email and guess which number I'm thinking.

Get it right, and you'll win 20% off.

Cheers,

​Phill​

¹Gaertig, C., & Simmons, J. (2025). Why (and when) are uncertain price promotions more effective than equivalent sure discounts? Journal of Consumer Research.

As a behavioural science practitioner, I believe in the peak-end rule.

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Nudge Newsletter

Phill Agnew

I spend 18 hours each week turning marketing psychology into readable newsletters.

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